http://bumface.blog.co.uk/"In times like these, it helps to recall that there have always been times like these."en-EUMokoFeed10http://bumface.blog.co.uk/http://data5.blog.de/design/preview/67/681929fe7b0ceb95570dc38234a06e_160x200.jpghttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/05/22/india-s-parliament-6155369/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-05-22:/2009/05/22/india-s-parliament-6155369/Fri, 22 May 2009 02:56:04 +0200 <p>India is one of the main targets for climate change. I wonder how the government is going to exercise control over its people in order to meet the challenge of controlling emissions. </p> <p>"Criminals see this as a business opportunity to make money and gain a foothold in politics, while parties depend on them to win elections."</p> <p>-- Himanshu Jha, coordinator of the rights organization Social Watch India, in an interview with Reuters, on estimates that nearly a fifth of 5,500 candidates in India's general election face criminal charges. In the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, widely seen as one of India's most corrupt states run by near feudal leaders, regional strongman Mukhtar Ansari -- who has a dozen murder cases against him -- is contesting the election from his cell in a high security prison, where he is facing trial for murder. The Indian constitution allows politicians facing criminal cases to contest polls, and critics say mafia dons and corrupt regional bosses are using their money and power to garner votes. A quarter of India's 543 elected members in parliament already have criminal cases pending against them, according to Social Watch India. Experts say it reflects how corruption and politics have co-existed in India for decades, undermining transparency and efficiency in governance and implementation. The third phase of the five-phased Indian general elections is being held Thursday.</p> <p>(source: Global Development Briefing, <a href="http://www.devex.com">www.devex.com</a>)</p> <p><a href="http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre53s2zq-us-india-election-criminals/">http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre53s2zq-us-india-election-criminals/</a><br> "One is facing a murder charge, another arrested for abduction, while a third is fighting a robbery case. Welcome to India's general election, where nearly a fifth of 5,500 candidates face criminal charges."</p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/05/22/india-s-parliament-6155369/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>electionparliamentgovernmentindiahttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/05/22/india-s-parliament-6155369/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/05/06/pilger-the-new-rulers-of-the-world-6072535/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-05-06:/2009/05/06/pilger-the-new-rulers-of-the-world-6072535/Wed, 06 May 2009 23:32:12 +0200 <br> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/05/06/pilger-the-new-rulers-of-the-world-6072535/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>indonesiavideopilgernew-rulershttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/05/06/pilger-the-new-rulers-of-the-world-6072535/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/29/waving-goodbye-to-consensus-5856253/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-03-29:/2009/03/29/waving-goodbye-to-consensus-5856253/Sun, 29 Mar 2009 23:54:00 +0200 <p>Three things have happened recently in Metyu's world of global warming.</p> <p>I was fortunate enough to receive a visit from the author of <a href="http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com">Digital Diatribes</a>, pointing out that his analysis of global temperatures showed a continuous warming trend since around mid-1800. The warming pattern forms a sine wave, almost as you'd expect from a natural system. Below is his graph, extrapolated out to 2050. Note that at no point does it go above 1degC of warming.</p> <p>Original: <a href="http://digitaldiatribes.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/hcdoublesinext.jpg">http://digitaldiatribes.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/hcdoublesinext.jpg</a> <br><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/760/3364760_84c24dc392_m.jpeg" alt="hcdoublesinext-sm" hspace="5" vspace="5"></p> <p>The next significant thing came from paying attention to Ward Engineering over at <a href="http://www.theenvironmentsite.org/forum/climate-change-forum/7456-wards-look-cause-global-warming.html">The Environment Site forums</a>. In a nutshell, Ward is a civil engineer who has been following changes in the alignment of the planets for a few decades, and has noticed a correlation with weather, particularly in terms of earthquakes and volcanoes. Of particular interest recently is what he terms the Jupiter System of Force coming into alignment with the Moon System of Force on March 26. The force systems exert "pressure" on the Earth in such as way as to effect earthquake zones and volcanoes. Sure enough, recently we have seen some volcanic activity. This in itself was not enough to convince me of anything in particular. </p> <p>However, watching the news the other night, I noticed that parts of south-eastern Africa have been experiencing significant floods in recent weeks. It caused me to wonder if the activity Ward spoke of was in any way related. So I did some googling, and turned up several things of interest, which I have also written about <a href="http://www.theenvironmentsite.org/forum/275132-post427.html">here, complete with pictures</a>. Basically, I discovered the floods were related to warmer than usual temperatures in the south western Indian ocean - which itself is an earthquake zone! I am no expert in these matters, however this struck me as significant. Particularly when you look at a global map of CO2 emissions (see link above), which shows that the concentration of CO2 above this part of the Indian ocean to be lower than elsewhere on the planet.</p> <p>The third and final thing that I have come across is a study from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Wisconsin, which shows that recent warming of the Atlantic ocean may be due to a lack of dust:</p> <p>"They say that the Atlantic temperature trend has been warmer by approximately a quarter of a degree each decade since 1980: but that most of this is actually because more sunlight is reaching the sea due to reducing levels of dirt in the air above it."</p> <p>At the end of this year, governments from around the world meet to finalise proposals for an economic system to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, based on claims from scientists around the world that anthropogenic CO2 emissions could destabilise the planet's climate. Going on past experience of both economic systems and attempts to reduce CO2 emissions, I suggest that the latter is not possible, and the former is usually used to ensure the developing world remains developing. How much climate "aid" is going to be dished out in the form of high interest loans and incentives to buy our solar panels and wind turbines?</p> <p>One has to wonder if scientists around the world will have the guts to stand up to government pressure, and wave goodbye to the so-called "consensus" that threatens to limit the ability of developing countries to use their own resources to drag themselves out of poverty. The bottom line is, there is no <em>probable </em>threat from climate change that justifies constricting and controlling people's ability to use the very resources we ourselves used to develop. </p> <p><span><a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/03/27/atlantic_dust_temp_hurricane_study/"><a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/03/27/atlantic_dust_temp_hurricane_study/">http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/03/27/atlantic_dust_temp_hurricane_study/</a></a><br></span></p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/29/waving-goodbye-to-consensus-5856253/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>earthquakesfloodswardclimatesystem-of-forcevolcanoesco2http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/29/waving-goodbye-to-consensus-5856253/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/09/droughts-in-the-uk-5724100/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-03-09:/2009/03/09/droughts-in-the-uk-5724100/Mon, 09 Mar 2009 17:10:54 +0100 <p>Two things to note: firstly, droughts are not currently measurably worse. </p> <p>Secondly, short-term summer droughts may become more severe. But long-term droughts will become less frequent and less severe. </p> <p>A sensible response is water management based on catchment areas, as we had for the majority of our history before politicians started messing with it. </p> <p><em><strong>Changes in drought frequency, severity and duration for the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models</strong></em></p> <p>Blenkinsop, S. & Fowler, H.J.<br> 2007<br> Journal: Journal of Hydrology<br> Issue: Vol.342<br> Pages: 50-71</p> <p>Using a number of climate models in impacts assessment allows the uncertainty in the projections of change to be examined. Six regional climate models (RCMs) from the PRUDENCE project (Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects <a href="http://prudence.dmi.dk/)">http://prudence.dmi.dk/)</a> were assessed to i) determine the ability of the model to accurately reproduce the observed climate statistics for the 1961-90 period; ii) examine the range of uncertainty in future changes for the SRES A2 emissions scenario for the 2071-2100 period; and iii) assess the ability of RCMs to reproduce observed drought frequencies. Future drought frequencies are also discussed.<br> It was found that the RCMs are able to re-produce the observed spatially averaged annual precipitation cycle over the British Isles but may have difficulty capturing important physical processes responsible for precipitation (such as regional variations within the UK). The RCMs were unable to simulate the observed frequency of drought events.</p> <p>The RCMs indicate that future projections of change in mean precipitation decrease during summer months and increase during winter months. Short-term summer drought is projected to increase in all areas except Scotland and Northern Ireland, although there is large uncertainty associated with such changes. Projected changes in long-term droughts are highly uncertain, although the longest droughts are projected to become much shorter and less severe. Differences between the model simulations are also discussed by the authors and it is noted that the choice of criteria for weighting models to produce probabilistic climate change scenarios is not easy.</p> <p>These results suggest under future climate change water companies may need to plan for more intense short-term droughts, but may experience fewer longer duration events.</p> <p><em><strong>Major droughts in England and Wales, 1800 – 2006</strong></em><br> Marsh, T., Cole, G. and Wilby, R<br> 2007<br> Journal: Weather<br> Issue: Vol.62, No.4<br> Pages: 87-93</p> <p>Marsh et al examined historical rainfall patterns (back to 1800) in the UK to determine whether more recent drought conditions (2004 to 2006) were exceptional. Data from a range of sources was used in the research, including the CET (Central England Temperature series), groundwater level data and historical and documentary evidence of drought impact.<br> The results suggested that the more recent drought events where by no means exceptional in terms of the longer historical period considered by the research. The record displays many examples of multi-year droughts, with the most extreme examples being the 1798 to 1808 and 1890 to 1910 droughts. The 1890 – 1910 drought displayed a rainfall deficiency greater than that recorded in the 2004 to 2006 drought period.</p> <p>The authors conclude that society has been able to adapt to these times of water stress in the past, even with an increasing water demand through population increase. However, considering the rise in temperatures, water demand and future expectations of water users, any repeat of the rainfall patterns of the 19th century would present a very significant challenge to the water industry. </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/09/droughts-in-the-uk-5724100/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/09/droughts-in-the-uk-5724100/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/06/sustainable-cities-5703709/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-03-06:/2009/03/06/sustainable-cities-5703709/Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:01:39 +0100 <p>Very good resource for urban planners and designers. </p> <p>Launched yesterday, this covers most of the issues that built environment professionals should be aware of when considering regeneration, new development or strategic incisions. </p> <p>Also worth a look if you're just curious!</p> <p>"This website gives expert advice on planning, designing and managing a sustainable place. It cuts through the complexity with clear priorities for action. And it shows which places are getting it right."</p> <p><a href="http://www.sustainablecities.org.uk/">http://www.sustainablecities.org.uk/</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/06/sustainable-cities-5703709/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchcitieshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/03/06/sustainable-cities-5703709/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/25/hulme-ioi-5644946/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-02-24:/2009/02/25/hulme-ioi-5644946/Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:49:59 +0100 <p><a href="http://fora.tv/2007/10/28/Science_and_Politics_of_Climate_Change#Mike_Hulme_Misconceptions_About_Climate_Change">http://fora.tv/2007/10/28/Science_and_Politics_of_Climate_Change#Mike_Hulme_Misconceptions_About_Climate_Change</a></p> <p>Hulme:</p> <p>Rapley:</p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/25/hulme-ioi-5644946/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/25/hulme-ioi-5644946/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/14/is-it-cos-i-is-black-5572892/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-02-14:/2009/02/14/is-it-cos-i-is-black-5572892/Sat, 14 Feb 2009 15:53:51 +0100 <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/209/3233209_152941e199_o.jpeg" alt="" title=""> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/14/is-it-cos-i-is-black-5572892/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/14/is-it-cos-i-is-black-5572892/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/06/portal-still-alive-5516630/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-02-05:/2009/02/06/portal-still-alive-5516630/Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:58:38 +0100 <p>Credits,</p> <p>Better sound,</p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/06/portal-still-alive-5516630/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/06/portal-still-alive-5516630/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/04/ns-unnatural-selection-robots-start-to-evolve-5508827/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-02-04:/2009/02/04/ns-unnatural-selection-robots-start-to-evolve-5508827/Wed, 04 Feb 2009 22:04:21 +0100 <p>"Unnatural selection: Robots start to evolve"<br> 04 February 2009 by Paul Marks<br> Magazine issue 2694. Subscribe and get 4 free issues.<br> For similar stories, visit the Robots Topic Guide<br> <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126946.600-unnatural-selection-robots-start-to-evolve.html?full=true">http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126946.600-unnatural-selection-robots-start-to-evolve.html?full=true</a></p> <p>LIVING creatures took millions of years to evolve from amphibians to four-legged mammals - with larger, more complex brains to match. Now an evolving robot has performed a similar trick in hours, thanks to a software "brain" that automatically grows in size and complexity as its physical body develops.</p> <p>Existing robots cannot usually cope with physical changes - the addition of a sensor or new type of limb, say - without a complete redesign of their control software, which can be time-consuming and expensive.</p> <p>So artificial intelligence engineer Christopher MacLeod and his colleagues at the Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, UK, created a robot that adapts to such changes by mimicking biological evolution. "If we want to make really complex humanoid robots with ever more sensors and more complex behaviours, it is critical that they are able to grow in complexity over time - just like biological creatures did," he says.</p> <p>As animals evolved, additions of small groups of neurons on top of existing neural structures are thought to have allowed their brain complexity to increase steadily, he says, keeping pace with the development of new limbs and senses. In the same way, Macleod's robot's brain assigns new clusters of "neurons" to adapt to new additions to its body.</p> <p>The robot is controlled by a neural network - software that mimics the brain's learning process. This comprises a set of interconnected processing nodes which can be trained to produce desired actions. For example, if the goal is to remain balanced and the robot receives inputs from sensors that it is tipping over, it will move its limbs in an attempt to right itself. Such actions are shaped by adjusting the importance, or weighting, of the input signals to each node. Certain combinations of these sensor inputs cause the node to fire a signal - to drive a motor, for example. If this action works, the combination is kept. If it fails, and the robot falls over, the robot will make adjustments and try something different next time.</p> <p>Finding the best combinations is not easy - so roboticists often use an evolutionary algorithm to "evolve" the optimal control system. The EA randomly creates large numbers of control "genomes" for the robot. These behaviour patterns are tested in training sessions, and the most successful genomes are "bred" together to create still better versions - until the best control system is arrived at.</p> <p>MacLeod's team took this idea a step further, however, and developed an incremental evolutionary algorithm (IEA) capable of adding new parts to its robot brain over time.</p> <p>The team started with a simple robot the size of a paperback book, with two rotatable pegs for legs that could be turned by motors through 180 degrees. They then gave the robot's six-neuron control system its primary command - to travel as far as possible in 1000 seconds. The software then set to work evolving the fastest form of locomotion to fulfil this task.</p> <p>"It fell over mostly, in a puppyish kind of way," says MacLeod. "But then it started moving forward and not falling over straight away - and then it got better and better until it could eventually hop along the bench like a mudskipper."</p> <p>When the IEA realises that its evolutions are no longer improving the robot's speed it freezes the neural network it has evolved, denying it the ability to evolve further. That network knows how to work the peg legs - and it will continue to do so.</p> <p>At this point, it is just like any other evolved robot: it would be unable to cope with the addition of knee-like joints, say, or more legs. But unlike conventional EAs, the IEA is sensitive to a sudden inability to live up to its primary command. So when the team fixed jointed legs to their robot's pegs, the software "realises" that it has to learn how to walk all over again. To do this, it automatically assigns itself fresh neurons to learn how to control its new legs.</p> <p>When the team fixed jointed legs onto the robot, it 'realised' it had to learn how to walk all over again<br> As the IEA runs again, the leg below the "knee" is initially wobbly, but the existing peg-leg "hip" is already trained. "So it flops about, but with more purpose to it," says MacLeod. "Eventually the knee joint works and the robot evolves a salamander-like motion."</p> <p>Once the primary command has been fulfilled once again, the IEA freezes that second neural network. When two more jointed legs are added to the rear of the robot, the software once again adds more neurons and this time evolves a four-legged trotting motion, and so on (see diagram).</p> <p>The robot can also adapt to newly acquired vision, and learn how to avoid or seek light when given a camera. "This is just like the way the brain evolved, building up in layers," Macleod says (Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence (DOI: 10.1016/j.engappai.2008.11.002).</p> <p>Kevin Warwick, head of cybernetics at the University of Reading in the UK, is far from convinced. He says just adding more neurons to the brain as things change is not enough; the entire neural structure must also adapt. "[MacLeod's] approach will result in many more neurons being needed to do the job badly, when a smaller number of neurons would have done well," he says.</p> <p>Macleod says the team ran tests in which the whole "brain" was able to re-evolve, but the system became too complex and simply ground to a halt. But he is now taking his idea a step further, with a simulated robot that not only evolves its own way of moving, but also decides how many legs and sensors it needs to carry out a given task most effectively.</p> <p>He is confident the technique will help to build more advanced robots. In particular, the software could make humanoid robots and prosthetic limbs more versatile, he says. "It can build layer-upon-layer of complexity to fulfil tasks in an open-ended way." </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/04/ns-unnatural-selection-robots-start-to-evolve-5508827/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/02/04/ns-unnatural-selection-robots-start-to-evolve-5508827/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/31/cato-cc-5479260/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-01-31:/2009/01/31/cato-cc-5479260/Sat, 31 Jan 2009 03:56:47 +0100 <p>"What to Do about Climate Change"<br> by Indur Goklany<br> <a href="http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9125">http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9125</a></p> <p>"according to cost information from the UN Millennium Program and the IPCC, measures focused specifically on reducing vulnerability to these threats would reduce cumulative mortality from these risks by 50–75 percent at a fraction of the cost of reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs)" </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/31/cato-cc-5479260/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/31/cato-cc-5479260/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/29/tim-lenton-5466599/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-01-28:/2009/01/29/tim-lenton-5466599/Thu, 29 Jan 2009 00:41:02 +0100 <p><a href="http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Tim%20Lenton&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=ws">http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Tim%20Lenton&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=ws</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/29/tim-lenton-5466599/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchhttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/29/tim-lenton-5466599/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/25/lizards-evolving-rapidly-5446959/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2009-01-25:/2009/01/25/lizards-evolving-rapidly-5446959/Sun, 25 Jan 2009 22:56:23 +0100 <p><a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/01/090121-lizard-ants-missions.html">http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/01/090121-lizard-ants-missions.html</a></p> <p>"The venom-packed stings of just 12 fire ants can kill a three-inch-long (eight-centimeter-long) fence lizard in a minute, according to lead study author Tracy Langkilde, a biologist at Pennsylvania State University. The ants have been known to strip animals as large as calves down to the bone.</p> <p>But some lizards twitch vigorously and flee the scene whenever ants attack, a defensive behavior that sheds the insects before they can pry up the reptiles' scales and sting the soft flesh underneath."</p> <p>"Fire ants were accidentally introduced to the U.S. from South America in the 1930s, possibly via shipping ports in Alabama.</p> <p>Without a method for controlling the population, scientists believe fire ants—which have no natural predators, in the U.S.—will eventually colonize more than 50 percent of Earth's land surface."</p> <p>"Duncan Irschick is a biologist at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst who uses lizards as a model to study evolution. He said Langkilde's research presents solid evidence that these are evolved traits.</p> <p>What's more, the findings highlight the ability of organisms to adjust to environmental changes beyond their control, he added.</p> <p>"It says there is some hope for species, that they can rapidly evolve to meet new challenges," Irschick said." </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/25/lizards-evolving-rapidly-5446959/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>wonderfulresearchhttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2009/01/25/lizards-evolving-rapidly-5446959/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/09/serial-denial-5191443/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-12-09:/2008/12/09/serial-denial-5191443/Tue, 09 Dec 2008 18:51:54 +0100 <p>Statistics needed<br> The Deniers -- Part I<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=22003a0d-37cc-4399-8bcc-39cd20bed2f6&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=22003a0d-37cc-4399-8bcc-39cd20bed2f6&k=0</a></p> <p>Warming is real - and has benefits<br> The Deniers -- Part II<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=1d78fc67-3784-4542-a07c-e7eeec46d1fc&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=1d78fc67-3784-4542-a07c-e7eeec46d1fc&k=0</a></p> <p>The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science<br> The Deniers -- Part III<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=ae9b984d-4a1c-45c0-af24-031a1380121a&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=ae9b984d-4a1c-45c0-af24-031a1380121a&k=0</a></p> <p>Polar scientists on thin ice<br> The Deniers -- Part IV<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=b228f4b0-a869-4f85-ba08-902b95c45dcf&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=b228f4b0-a869-4f85-ba08-902b95c45dcf&k=0</a></p> <p>The original denier: into the cold<br> The Deniers -- Part V<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=63ab844f-8c55-4059-9ad8-89de085af353&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=63ab844f-8c55-4059-9ad8-89de085af353&k=0</a></p> <p>The sun moves climate change<br> The Deniers -- Part VI<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=fee9a01f-3627-4b01-9222-bf60aa332f1f&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=fee9a01f-3627-4b01-9222-bf60aa332f1f&k=0</a></p> <p>Will the sun cool us?<br> The Deniers -- Part VII<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=17fad0e2-6f6b-41f3-bdd8-8e9eeb015777&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=17fad0e2-6f6b-41f3-bdd8-8e9eeb015777&k=0</a></p> <p>The limits of predictability<br> The Deniers -- Part VIII<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=9bc9a7c6-2729-4d07-9629-807f1dee479f&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=9bc9a7c6-2729-4d07-9629-807f1dee479f&k=0</a></p> <p>Look to Mars for the truth on global warming<br> The Deniers -- Part IX<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=edae9952-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723&k=0</a></p> <p>Limited role for C02<br> The Deniers -- Part X<br> <a href="http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=069cb5b2-7d81-4a8e-825d-56e0f112aeb5&k=0">http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=069cb5b2-7d81-4a8e-825d-56e0f112aeb5&k=0</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/09/serial-denial-5191443/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchnewshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/09/serial-denial-5191443/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/02/antarctic-islands-surpass-galapagos-for-biodiversity-5153550/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-12-02:/2008/12/02/antarctic-islands-surpass-galapagos-for-biodiversity-5153550/Tue, 02 Dec 2008 22:39:18 +0100 <p><a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16130-antarctic-islands-surpass-galapagos-for-biodiversity.html">http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16130-antarctic-islands-surpass-galapagos-for-biodiversity.html</a></p> <p>16:05 01 December 2008 by Tamsin Osborne</p> <p>A group of isolated Antarctic islands have proved to be unexpectedly rich in life. The first comprehensive biodiversity survey of the South Orkney Islands, near the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, has revealed that they are home to more species of sea and land animals than the Galapagos.</p> <p>The findings raise the issue of what sort of impact climate change - already hitting the Antarctic hard - will have on this rich biodiversity.</p> <p>Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey and the University of Hamburg, Germany, carried out the survey using a combination of trawl nets, sampling as deep as 1500m, and scuba divers. The team found over 1200 species, a third of which were not thought to live in the region. They also identified five new species.</p> <p>The majority of animals were found in the sea, with most living on the seabed.</p> <p>These findings go against the traditional view that biodiversity declines away from the tropics and towards the polar regions, says lead researcher David Barnes of the British Antarctic Survey.</p> <p>"Our paper makes the point that if you go right the way across different animal groups rather than taking one specific animal group, which is what most biodiversity studies do, then you get a much better perspective of real biodiversity," he says. "This is the first place in either polar region, not just the Antarctic, where we've actually got a biodiversity across all groups."</p> <p>Previous research has shown that Antarctic waters harbour a surprising diversity of plankton and larvae and that deep-sea life in the Southern Ocean is similarly rich. But the new study is the first to look at all animals on land as well as in the seas.</p> <p>"As the sea gets warmer, then temperate species will move into Antarctica and Antarctic species will shift further south or into colder regions," says Barnes. "The South Orkney Islands is the one place where we have a real possibility of detecting new things arriving and things leaving."</p> <p>Jon Copley, a marine ecologist at the University of Southampton, UK, agrees. "The starting point for any conservation strategy has got to be knowing what you've got to conserve," he says, "and this study provides a very valuable baseline in that regard."</p> <p>While biodiversity in this region may not decrease as a result of the warming, says Barnes, it is likely that the changes in species composition will result in an overall loss in the Earth's biodiversity.</p> <p>"All that it will take is for a few things to alter," says Barnes. "It is only a matter of time."</p> <p>Journal reference: Journal of Biogeography, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.02030.x </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/02/antarctic-islands-surpass-galapagos-for-biodiversity-5153550/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>newshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/02/antarctic-islands-surpass-galapagos-for-biodiversity-5153550/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/02/poland-sends-conflicting-signals-at-climate-summit-ns-5152912/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-12-02:/2008/12/02/poland-sends-conflicting-signals-at-climate-summit-ns-5152912/Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:33:59 +0100 <p><a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16178-poland-sends-conflicting-signals-at-climate-summit.html">http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16178-poland-sends-conflicting-signals-at-climate-summit.html</a></p> <p> * 13:13 02 December 2008 by Fred Pearce<br> * For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide</p> <p>"On Monday morning, St Mark's Square in Venice experienced its deepest flood for 22 years. At 10am, just as the flood waters peaked, the latest UN climate negotiations opened 800 kilometres to the north in Poznan, Poland.</p> <p>The conference chairman, Maciej Nowicki, who is also Poland's environment minister, warned that without action to halt greenhouse-gas emissions there would be "global threats of really great intensity: increasing ocean levels, huge droughts and floods, cyclones with increasingly more destructive power, pandemics of tropical disease [and] a dramatic decline in biodiversity".</p> <p>The two weeks of high-level negotiations are a stepping stone to reaching agreement on a successor to the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012. Ministers will consider proposals to compensate tropical countries that conserve carbon-capturing rainforests, and for cutting rich-world emissions to 60 to 75 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020. The agreement is scheduled to be wrapped-up in Copenhagen this time next year.</p> <p>Progress is expected to be slow, however, because the global financial crisis means there is less money to invest in cutting emissions and green technologies, the fact that the US delegation has little authority to act until Barack Obama takes office, and a logjam over climate policy at the European Union.</p> <p>Embarrassingly, the hosts of the UN conference are at the centre of that logjam. Poland gets more than 90% of its electricity from coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, and while Nowicki speaks of his fears about climate change, his cabinet colleagues in Brussels are blocking plans for an EU carbon-trading system that would require power companies to pay up to 80 euros for every tonne of carbon dioxide they emit." </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/02/poland-sends-conflicting-signals-at-climate-summit-ns-5152912/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>newspoliticshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/12/02/poland-sends-conflicting-signals-at-climate-summit-ns-5152912/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/29/sarkozy-calls-for-inclusive-g8-5132266/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-29:/2008/11/29/sarkozy-calls-for-inclusive-g8-5132266/Sat, 29 Nov 2008 15:07:49 +0100 <p>Sarkozy calls for 'inclusive' G8<br> By Anita Rice in Doha, Qatar</p> <p>The G8 has become "obsolete" as emerging economies change the global economic order, Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, has said.</p> <p>Speaking on Saturday at the formal opening of the Doha-hosted UN summit on financing development, he said: "We [Europe] believe the G8, when it was formed, was useful but it is now obsolete ... you could not resolve the current global economic crisis without China, Brazil ... [and other emerging economic powers]."</p> <p>Sarkozy also called for the Bretton Woods Institutions - the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - to be more inclusive and for better African representation within the UN Security Council.</p> <p>"Africa, you must have your seat, you must have a fair place within international finance institutions. There is not a single African country that is a permanent member of the the UN Security Council," he said.</p> <p>"Within the IMF developing countries must have a seat and a much more important role to play."</p> <p>Sarkozy also delivered a robust defence of European commitment to delivering on UN-set aid targets - most notably that 0.7 per cent of gross national income should be donated by developed countries annually by 2015.</p> <p>The 0.7 per cent target was originally set in the 1970s and is now enshrined in the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).</p> <p>"Within the European Union (EU), we are all facing growing difficulties, increasing unemployment ... but we decided not to sacrifice the Millennium Development Goals and try to live up to the promises made in terms of official development aid (ODA).</p> <p>"And that promise is a real one because, right now, about 60 per cent of ODA comes from Europe."</p> <p>His comments could be interpreted as a rebuke to activists who have criticised developed nations for lacking commitment to development goals - including many European states - because they did not send heads of government to the conference.</p> <p>Throughout his speech the French leader, who is also the current holder of the EU presidency and the only G8 leader at the summit, underlined he was speaking on behalf of Europe.</p> <p>The conference was officially opened by Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, who warned that developed nations "have no right to dictate to others what they should do".</p> <p>The emir also said that oil-producing states, like Qatar, often "have the feeling that there are some attempts to put the whole burden of development" on them, and cautioned that aid expectations should not exceed individual state's capabilities.</p> <p>Aid agencies and developing nations are warning of a humanatarian catastrophe if aid levels drop dramatically - as has happened in the past - because of the financial crisis.</p> <p>Justin Lin, the World Bank's chief economist and head of delegation at the summit, has already urged industrialised nations to maintain aid delivery as it estimates the economic downturn will see private capital flows into developing countries drop from $1 trillion in 2007 to half that in 2009.</p> <p>"The global financial crisis is likely to set back the fight against poverty and progress toward the MDGs," said Lin.</p> <p>"Sharply tighter credit conditions and slower economic growth may affect investment in education, health, women's empowerment and undo many of the hard-won gains in recent years."</p> <p>The UN summit has been convened to measure progress made on the landmark 2002 Monterrey Consenus that established key development principles. The conference formally ends on December 3.</p> <p><a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2008/11/20081129105933828111.html">http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2008/11/20081129105933828111.html</a></p> <p>Monterrey: key issues</p> <p>The 2002 Monterrey Consensus was the result of a UN-sponsored conference on financing for development.</p> <p>Unlike the current Doha summit, it was attended by 50 heads of state including chiefs of the IMF and World Bank.</p> <p>The Consensus established pledges on six themes:</p> <p> - Domestic resources<br> - Foreign investments<br> - Trade<br> - Aid<br> - Debt<br> - Systemic issues </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/29/sarkozy-calls-for-inclusive-g8-5132266/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchnewshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/29/sarkozy-calls-for-inclusive-g8-5132266/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/29/sri-lanka-hit-by-heavy-floods-5132239/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-29:/2008/11/29/sri-lanka-hit-by-heavy-floods-5132239/Sat, 29 Nov 2008 15:01:44 +0100 <p>"At least four people have been killed and more than 71,000 others displaced by floods caused by heavy rains in northern Sri Lanka, an official said."<br> <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2008/11/20081129111650596940.html">http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2008/11/20081129111650596940.html</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/29/sri-lanka-hit-by-heavy-floods-5132239/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>newshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/29/sri-lanka-hit-by-heavy-floods-5132239/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/28/market-woes-threaten-un-aid-goals-5122852/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-28:/2008/11/28/market-woes-threaten-un-aid-goals-5122852/Fri, 28 Nov 2008 01:07:13 +0100 <p>Market woes threaten UN aid goals<br> By Anita Rice</p> <p>"Aid groups fear developed nations will not commit to firm aid targets [GALLO/GETTY]</p> <p>Rich countries must not use the banking crisis as an excuse to backpeddle on aid commitments, leading charities have warned ahead of a Doha-hosted United Nations (UN) summit on development."</p> <p><a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/business/2008/11/20081127162730663628.html">http://english.aljazeera.net/business/2008/11/20081127162730663628.html</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/28/market-woes-threaten-un-aid-goals-5122852/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>economynewshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/28/market-woes-threaten-un-aid-goals-5122852/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/27/unhcr-antonio-guterres-5120639/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-27:/2008/11/27/unhcr-antonio-guterres-5120639/Thu, 27 Nov 2008 18:39:04 +0100 <p>"I am not asking to have the same amount of money for humanitarian action that's being spent, or at least being made available, to rescue the international financial system. But at least we should have the same commitment to rescue people that we have to rescue the financial system, and to rescue the financial system is absolutely necessary." </p> <p>UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres, urging the world community not to forget the poor and vulnerable. Speaking to foreign reporters during a visit to Baghdad, Guterres said that at the same time that he was presenting this week a global appeal for USD 7 billion to help 30 million people, Washington had announced a USD 20 billion capital injection for a single bank - a reference to the weekend bailout of Citigroup. The UN global common appeal he presented in Abu Dhabi seeks to raise USD 7 billion for around 360 UN and nongovernmental agencies helping "the poorest of the poor, the most vulnerable of the vulnerable," in 31 countries, he said, as cited by Reuters. Quoting from a Bob Marley song, Guterres said "a hungry man is an angry man." Humanitarian support is not just a question of charity, he added, but shows enlightened self-interest by those who understand that such support is the best way to preserve world peace.</p> <p><em>Source: Global Development Briefing, <a href="http://www.devex.com">www.devex.com</a></em> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/27/unhcr-antonio-guterres-5120639/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>quoteshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/27/unhcr-antonio-guterres-5120639/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/26/76-of-american-middle-class-households-not-financially-secure-5108868/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-26:/2008/11/26/76-of-american-middle-class-households-not-financially-secure-5108868/Wed, 26 Nov 2008 03:34:30 +0100 <p>"The median financial assets held by middle-class families declined by 22 percent. This means that for every dollar in median assets that middle-class families held in 2000, they held just 78 cents in 2006. These figures do not include home equity and therefore do not reflect additional losses families may have experienced due a decline in their home values."</p> <p><a href="http://www.physorg.com/news146747347.html">http://www.physorg.com/news146747347.html</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/26/76-of-american-middle-class-households-not-financially-secure-5108868/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researcheconomyhttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/26/76-of-american-middle-class-households-not-financially-secure-5108868/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/25/forbes-fed-caused-economic-crisis-5101454/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-24:/2008/11/25/forbes-fed-caused-economic-crisis-5101454/Tue, 25 Nov 2008 00:50:09 +0100 <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/25/forbes-fed-caused-economic-crisis-5101454/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>videoseconomypoliticshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/25/forbes-fed-caused-economic-crisis-5101454/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/12/hurricanes-not-getting-worse-not-connected-to-agw-5024885/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-12:/2008/11/12/hurricanes-not-getting-worse-not-connected-to-agw-5024885/Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:29:51 +0100 <p>This is consistent with UKCIP’s latest report which shows no increasing trend in winds in the UK since records began in seventeen sixty something. </p> <p><strong>“30-year low for Northern tropical cyclone activity”</strong><br> “Maue's results dovetail with other research suggesting hurricanes are variable and unconnected to global warming predictions, said Stan Goldenberg, a hurricane researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”</p> <p>"The simplistic notion that warmer oceans from global warming automatically lead to more frequent and or stronger hurricanes has not been verified," said Goldenberg, whose research points to periods of high and low hurricane activity that last several decades each.”</p> <p><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2008-11-12-northern-hemisphere-hurricane-activity_N.htm">http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2008-11-12-northern-hemisphere-hurricane-activity_N.htm</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/12/hurricanes-not-getting-worse-not-connected-to-agw-5024885/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchhttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/12/hurricanes-not-getting-worse-not-connected-to-agw-5024885/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/11/bees-your-help-please-5017506/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-11:/2008/11/11/bees-your-help-please-5017506/Tue, 11 Nov 2008 12:09:04 +0100 <p>Not many people know this, but falling bee populations are threatening our livelihoods.</p> <p>If you've read my blog before, you'll know I am sceptical about climate change. But that does not mean that everything is fine and dandy, it just means, please god don't let them create a new world order based on debt and population reduction. </p> <p>Anyway that aside, the bee issue is very serious. You can find all sorts by googling it. Fortunately, this is something everyone can do something about: plant flowers, and put little bee hives in your garden. </p> <p>Our gardens in London are, per square metre, more biologically diverse than rainforests. We can all encourage this by not using pesticides and other killers, and learning to take pleasure in natural beauty by encouraging the planting of native species. </p> <p>While I'm at it, piles of wood are also great for insects in general, including the beleaguered Stag Beetle.</p> <p>Lecture over <img src="/img/smilies/icon_smile.gif" alt=":)" class="middle" border="0"></p> <p>"Bees are dying across the world at a terrifying rate. The apian epidemic started in the United States, where entire populations of honey bees have simply vanished in the phenomenon known as colony collapse disorder (CCD). At least a quarter of America’s 2.5 million honeybee colonies have been wiped out already, and CCD has spread to Brazil, Canada and parts of Europe.</p> <p>Bee populations are also sharply reduced in Britain, with some keepers reporting the abandonment of more than half their hives. Defra insists that this is not due to CCD, but many beekeepers fear that the mysterious affliction has arrived here."<br> <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/ben_macintyre/article2231321.ece">http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/ben_macintyre/article2231321.ece</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/11/bees-your-help-please-5017506/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/11/bees-your-help-please-5017506/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/06/w-the-good-ol-days-4993972/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-06:/2008/11/06/w-the-good-ol-days-4993972/Thu, 06 Nov 2008 14:11:16 +0100 <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/266/2965266_a701c3d701_m.jpg" alt="2006 with young German" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/265/2965265_dc0d47a041_m.jpg" alt="2006 still in Honolulu" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/264/2965264_f9fcdfd2a5_m.jpg" alt="2006 mixed feelings" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/263/2965263_8ae813b8da_m.jpg" alt="2006 in Honolulu" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/262/2965262_958661919e_m.jpg" alt="2005 closed doors in Peking" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/261/2965261_191a4674ec_m.jpg" alt="2005 at the danish queen\" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/260/2965260_cc59820239_m.jpg" alt="2003 a holiday accident" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/259/2965259_0e44124d22_m.jpg" alt="2001 with the turkey he once saved" vspace="5" hspace="5"></p> <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/258/2965258_31529874ca_m.jpg" alt="2001 greeting while holding onto dog" vspace="5" hspace="5"> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/06/w-the-good-ol-days-4993972/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/06/w-the-good-ol-days-4993972/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/06/uk-climate-trends-4993673/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-06:/2008/11/06/uk-climate-trends-4993673/Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:00:46 +0100 <p>The UKCIP is the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme based at the Environmental Change Institute of Oxford University. It "was established in 1997 to help co-ordinate scientific research into the impacts of climate change, and to help organisations adapt to those unavoidable impacts."</p> <p>Here is a snapshot summary of UK climate trends for anyone interested, but not enough to download the 22MB report.</p> <p><a href="http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=322&Itemid=9#08">"<u><strong>The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends</strong></u>"</a></p> <p>1) Central England Temperature has risen by about a degree Celsius since 1980, with 2006 being the warmest on record.</p> <p>2) It is likely that there has been a significant influence from human activity on the recent warming of CET.</p> <p>3) Temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland have risen by about 0.8 ºC since about 1980, but this rise has not been attributed to specific causes.</p> <p>4) Annual mean precipitation over England and Wales has not changed significantly since records began in 1766. Seasonal rainfall is highly variable, but appears to have decreased in summer and increased in winter, although with little change in the latter over the last 50 years.</p> <p>5) There has been considerable variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation, but with no significant trend over the past few decades.</p> <p>6) Severe windstorms around the UK have become more frequent in the past few decades, although not above that seen in the 1920s. There continues to be little evidence that the recent increase in storminess over the UK is related to manmade climate change.</p> <p>7) Sea-surface temperatures around the UK coast have risen over the past three decades by about 0.7 ºC.</p> <p>8) Sea level around the UK rose by about 1mm/yr in the 20th century, corrected for land movement.</p> <p>9) The rate of absolute sea-level rise (i.e. corrected for land movement) around the UK in the 1990s and 2000s is higher than that for the 20th century overall; the latter being about 1mm/yr. [although they do not commit to a value for 90s and 00s rising, the report hints that it may be around 2mm per year] </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/06/uk-climate-trends-4993673/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchhttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/06/uk-climate-trends-4993673/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/for-a-laugh-4990399/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-05:/2008/11/05/for-a-laugh-4990399/Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:12:13 +0100 <p><img src="http://data5.blog.de/media/544/2963544_d3f1bee317_m.jpg" alt="potholes" vspace="5" hspace="5"> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/for-a-laugh-4990399/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/for-a-laugh-4990399/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/interesting-times-4989962/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-05:/2008/11/05/interesting-times-4989962/Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:46:54 +0100 <p><strong>"If you destroy the dollar you're going to destroy a worldwide economy"</strong></p> <p><strong>"A few members were even told that there would be martial law in America if we voted no"</strong></p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/interesting-times-4989962/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>videoseconomypoliticshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/interesting-times-4989962/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/rothschilds-4989666/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-05:/2008/11/05/rothschilds-4989666/Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:42:34 +0100 <p>"The Rothschild family (often referred to simply as the Rothschilds), is an international banking and finance dynasty of German Jewish origin that established operations across Europe, and was ennobled by the Austrian and British governments."<br> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family</a></p> <p>"I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ... The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply."<br> <a href="http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote/nathan_mayer_rothschild_quote_4f94">http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quote/nathan_mayer_rothschild_quote_4f94</a></p> <p>More quotes about Rothschilds:<br> <a href="http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quotes_about/rothschild">http://quotes.liberty-tree.ca/quotes_about/rothschild</a></p> <p>"In October 2008, he was the subject of much press speculation; it was revealed that Labour politician Peter Mandelson and Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska had met upon when staying on a yacht, moored near Corfu, in order to attend a party held by Rothschild. After speculation that this might constitute a conflict of interest for Mandelson, Rothschild wrote a letter to the The Times, alleging that another guest was Conservative Shadow-Chancellor George Osborne, who, Rothschild claimed, illicitly tried to solicit a donation from the Russian for his party.<br> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_Philip_Rothschild">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathaniel_Philip_Rothschild</a></p> <p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullingdon_Club#Notable_members">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullingdon_Club#Notable_members</a> </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/rothschilds-4989666/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>economyquotespoliticshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/05/rothschilds-4989666/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/03/predictions-and-forecasts-4975691/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-03:/2008/11/03/predictions-and-forecasts-4975691/Mon, 03 Nov 2008 12:50:18 +0100 <p>When discussing an issue such as climate change, I am often amazed at how people can believe statements such as "the Earth will warm up by between 2 and 6 degrees in 100 years". The reasons for my amazement first, then an example to elaborate on point (3):</p> <p>1) The warming is very precise. We believe computer models that say "X ppm CO2 rise = 0.XoC warming" without questioning what the numbers themselves represent.<br> 2) The numbers involved are vast. Thermodynamically, the difference between 2 and 6 is enormous. When considered in terms of the size of the Earth, 1oC of temperature change represents an astronomical amount of energy.<br> 3) Anyone with a grasp of such numbers, and the Earth's systems (I read somewhere that there are around 2 million "feedback" effects in the climate system), should be aware that it is just not possible to predict what will happen in weeks, let alone years.<br> 4) Making policy decisions as a result of this "science" while completely ignoring the economic and political implications is frankly mindblowing. </p> <p>Point 3 in particular requires some elaboration. I often hear that while we can't predict the weather next week, there is a "general trend" that can be followed over time. But this totally ignores the history of forecasting, and ideas such as forecast degradation and the law of iterated expectations.</p> <p>Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan" elaborates on this much more. There is an example he uses regarding billiard balls on a table that explains what I am getting at very well, fortunately someone else has already blogged it here:</p> <p><a href="http://www.anecdote.com.au/archives/2007/10/the_billiard_ba.html">http://www.anecdote.com.au/archives/2007/10/the_billiard_ba.html</a></p> <p>Most people are aware of the rice-on-a-chessboard example, but the billiard ball example provides us with this statement:</p> <p>"to compute the fifty-sixth impact, every single elementary particle in the universe needs to be present in your assumptions!" </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/03/predictions-and-forecasts-4975691/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researcheconomyruminationspoliticshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/03/predictions-and-forecasts-4975691/#commentshttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/02/climate-change-helps-short-lived-creatures-4972064/tag:bumface.blog.co.uk,2008-11-02:/2008/11/02/climate-change-helps-short-lived-creatures-4972064/Sun, 02 Nov 2008 20:53:50 +0100 <p><strong>"Climate change helps short-lived creatures"</strong><br> <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/channel/life/dn15092-climate-change-helps-shortlived-creatures.html">http://www.newscientist.com/channel/life/dn15092-climate-change-helps-shortlived-creatures.html</a></p> <p>"Climate change is likely to disrupt food chains by favouring animals with short lifespans over often bigger rivals that are worse at tolerating temperature swings.</p> <p>Researchers in Germany and Canada say that animals have widely differing "thermal windows" – a range of temperatures in which they best feed, grow and reproduce. That means that climate change will not affect all equally.</p> <p>"Climate change will favour species with wide thermal windows, short lifespans and a large gene pool amongst its population," the journal Science says of the findings." </p> <p> <small> <a href="http://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/02/climate-change-helps-short-lived-creatures-4972064/#comments">Comments</a> </small> </p>researchhttp://bumface.blog.co.uk/2008/11/02/climate-change-helps-short-lived-creatures-4972064/#comments