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- http://www.theclimateheretic.com
- 05.03.2009 @ 17:36:32
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metyu
- 05.03.2009 @ 17:43:05
Not a chance!
At least Nature still has her sense of humour, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/03/02/shiver-global-warming-protest-frozen-massive-snowfall/ -
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- http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com
- 06.03.2009 @ 17:33:00
I came here from your exchange on the environment site blog discussion you were engaged in. I am not a member there and have no interest in becoming one, but wanted to pass on a note to you regarding one of the charts that was presented on the best-fit triple sine wave.
I am the author of that chart, and the presenter of it clearly did not understand the implications of it. What I did was look a the oceanic cycles (AMO, PDO, and ENSO) and I recognized that they varied quite well with a sine wave fit. In other words, a very steady periodic cycle. In particular, the PDO and AMO are offset in such a way that a century ago they generally offset each others' effects. But there has been a shift occurring where the amplitudes are slowly, over time, coming into alignment.
What I did was take the HadCrut data and analyze 2 sine waves (I also presented the chart of 3 sine waves, but the difference between the two are inconsequential). The resulting chart, rather than corroborating scientific claims of recent runaway warming, actually refutes that claim. What the chart says is that there is, in fact, a very steady linear increase in temperature since 1850 in the area of 0.4 degrees Celsius per Century. The other fluctuations in temperature can be neraly fully explained simply by fitting two sine waves along that line. This tells us that the recent run-up in temperature over the last couple decades were a result of natural cyclical forces. Had the presenter shown the extrapolated chart that I presented, you would see that we are at the peak of the current cyclical alignment, and the projection shows that we will now be riding the downturn of the wave until around 2030. Past that point, we will warm again, and to a much swifter degree than the last 30 years - but this again will be due to natural cycles as the amplitudes line up even closer than the last phase did.
Anyway, I wished to pass this on to you, as the claim that all those charts basically showed the same thing and corroborated the study that was presented was erroneous.-
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metyu
- 07.03.2009 @ 15:51:16
Thank you for taking the time to visit and share. I am thinking of blogging a response, rather than reply via comment. Will let you know!
Regards,
M. -
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